To: Honorable Mayor and Members of Town Council
From: Julie Kirkpatrick, PLA, ASLA, Long Range Project Manager
Title
Update: Residential Unit Data
Body
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To view tables, please review Staff Report.
Executive Summary
On February 21, 2017, staff presented an updated residential unit data report with the intention of updating the Council periodically. The data outlines the maximum zoning entitlements and growth areas approved by Council and provides an update on the pace of activity in each area of town through March 2017, which shows an estimated population of 62,706. This is an additional 532 residents compared to the end of December population estimate of 62,174.
Discussion
Each planned development on Table A shows the PD’s name, date of zoning approval and corresponding PD number depicted on the Town’s Zoning District Map to help identify the areas included with the unit counts. The map in Attachment A shows the geographic location of each PD area.
Residential areas within the Town that are straight-zoned are primarily located within the downtown and Craig and Gould subdivision, denoted as “Central Castle Rock” in Table A. The “Maximum Zoned Units” and “Units Built (CO)” counts were further divided into single family (SF) or multi-family (MF). The SF numbers include single family detached and single family attached units, such as townhomes or paired homes. The multi-family numbers include single building attached units such as apartments or condominiums. In several cases, zoning for planned developments allows either single family or multi-family units within a specific planning area. To estimate the resulting population numbers, 3.04 persons per Single Family detached or attached unit and 2 persons per multi-family units are used as multipliers in the associated category. The multipliers were provided through use of the Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG) and US Census Bureau data.
Table A shows the Town has approximately 54,316 maximum entitled units and approximately 22,144 units have received a Certificate of Occupancy through March 31, 2017. The data equates to an estimated build-out population of 141,646 residents using maximum zoned/entitled units, and 62,706 existing residents as of end of first quarter 2017.
Qualifiers
As a recap of earlier discussions with the Council, the data includes qualifiers, which can sometimes be difficult to predict. Based upon review of historical data and updated data contained herein, staff noted that several themes emerged:
1. We cannot predict an accurate build-out number on larger planned communities because changing market conditions result in adjustments throughout the lifetime of a development.
2. We cannot predict a reduction to the entitled number of units unless the development team requests a rezone to reduce the unit count.
3. We can accurately outline known circumstances, meaning we can identify the difference between maximum entitled unit counts and the total platted lot counts, where no additional lots can be constructed.
4. We can update the data with new information to determine how local trends are effecting the pace and location of growth in the community.
In our opinion, based upon discussions with the master planned community development teams and the information provided herein, staff suggests the likelihood of full build-out to reach the entitled number of units is highly unlikely.
Attachments
Attachment A: PD Zoning Map