To: Honorable Mayor and Members of Town Council
Through: David L. Corliss, Town Manager
From: Tara Vargish, PE, Director, Development Services
Brad Boland, AICP, Long Range Project Manager
Title
Update: Residential Unit Data (through September 30, 2024) with Potential Buildout Estimates
Body
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Executive Summary
The purpose of this quarterly residential unit data update is to provide an overview of development activity and estimated population projections. This update includes data through the third quarter of 2024, ending on September 30, 2024. The data outlines the maximum zoning entitlements and growth areas approved by Council and provides an update on the pace of activity in each area of Town. During the third quarter of 2024, there were 104 single family units completed and 118, for an estimated increase of 355 new residents overall. The current estimates show an approximate population of 86,173 through September 30, 2024.
Staff continues to update the potential realistic buildout estimates as more information becomes available, and updates them with each quarterly report. The potential high and low buildout calculations provide more realistic unit and population estimates to aid in planning for future Town resources.
In estimating the Town’s population, the same household size of 3.04 people for single-family residences and 2 people per multi-family residence has been used since 2015. Over that time period the Town has seen significant growth along with general demographics changes. Staff determined that it is appropriate to utilize an updated household size moving forward. Each July, the State Demography Office provides updated demographics data that includes household size specific for Castle Rock. Since 2015, the US Census Bureau and State Demography no longer provide an individual household size for single-family and multi-family housing types, instead they provide a single household size for all housing types. This household size provided by the State Demography office is 2.8 person per dwelling unit. If this new household size was utilized for this quarterly estimate the population would show a slight decrease in population, as the majority of the Town’s units are single family residences which were historically calculated at 3.04 people per home. As new housings units were completed and people moved into those units during the past quarter it did not seem appropriate to show a decrease in population. Therefore, a smoothing variable was used for this quarter as we transition to the State Demography Office’s household size for Castle Rock. The new household size of 2.8 persons for all dwelling types will be utilized for the next quarter update. Moving forward, the new household size provided by the State Demography Office for Castle Rock will be utilized each year after its publication.
Attachments
Attachment A: Town of Castle Rock PD Zoning Map
Attachment B: Unit Data through September 30, 2024 with Potential Buildout Chart