To: Honorable Mayor and Members of Town Council
Through: David L. Corliss, Town Manager
From: Tara Vargish, PE, Director, Development Services
Brad Boland, AICP, Long Range Project Manager
Title
Update: Residential Unit Data (through December 31, 2024) with Potential Buildout Estimates
Body
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Executive Summary
The purpose of this quarterly residential unit data update is to provide an overview of development activity and estimated population projections. This update includes data through the fourth quarter of 2024, ending on December 31, 2024. The data outlines the maximum zoning entitlements and growth areas approved by Council and provides an update on the pace of activity in each area of Town. During the fourth quarter of 2024, there were 114 single family units completed and 332 multifamily units completed, for an estimated increase of 851 new residents overall. The current estimates show an approximate population of 87,024 through December 31, 2024.
Staff continues to update the potential realistic buildout estimates as more information becomes available, and updates them with each quarterly report. The potential high and low buildout calculations provide more realistic unit and population estimates to aid in planning for future Town resources.
In estimating the Town’s population, the same household size of 3.04 people for single-family residences and 2 people per multi-family residence has been used since 2015. Over that time period the Town has seen significant growth along with general demographics changes. Staff determined that it is appropriate to utilize an updated household size moving forward. Each July, the State Demography Office provides updated demographics data that includes household size. Since 2015, the US Census Bureau or State Demography no longer provide an individual household size for single-family and multi-family housing types and just provide a single household size. The most current household size provided by the State Demography office for Castle Rock is 2.8. If the new household size were to be utilized starting in the past quarter the estimated population would have shown a slight decrease in population. As new housings units were completed and people moved into those units during the third quarter it did not seem appropriate to show a decrease in population. Therefore, a smoothing variable of 1.6 persons per household was used for the new households that were completed during the third quarter. The use of the smoothing variable provided an appropriate transition into using the new household size moving forward. The household size of 2.8 persons per unit has been utilized for this update. Moving forward, the new household size provided by the State Demography Office for Castle Rock will be utilized each year after its publication. By updating the household size on an annual basis, it is expected that there will be subtle changes over time that will not necessitate the need to use a smoothing variable in the future.
In addition to the estimated population utilizing the new household size, the new household size was used for the estimated population at full buildout based on the total maximum zoned/entitled units in the Town and the realistic full buildout population estimates.
Attachments
Attachment A: Town of Castle Rock PD Zoning Map
Attachment B: Unit Data through December 31, 2024 with Potential Buildout Chart